Turnout

The Turnout tab appears on the left sidebar, and is used to increase or decrease turnout for any candidate. It is hidden by default, but can be added to the left sidebar with the tab selector. When modifying turnout, a candidate, the turnout factor, and the Vote Component to apply the change to must be selected. The turnout factor is the baseline percent multiplier of turnout which is applied to a candidate’s votes (e.g., 110%). Vote Components are subclassifications of the total votes which comprise the overall preset settings. For example, Vote Components may describe VoteHub’s ecological inferencing outputs by ethnicity and race for the midterms forecast. By filtering by a Vote Component, the turnout adjustment will only apply to the voters which comprise that Vote Component. After the candidate, factor, and Vote Component are selected, the region where the turnout adjustment applies must also be selected. The region can either be chosen via Select, which is the default setting, or Paint. In Select, features are selected on the map. The shift will only apply to those features, and no others. In Paint, features can be chosen to have the shift applied to by painting them with a brush on the map, accessible by holding the Shift key on the keyboard. The size and hardness of the brush can be modified. The adjustment will apply only to the features that were painted, and the intensity of the adjustment will be a fraction of the original turnout factor assigned based on the strength of the paint. For example, a feature that had paint applied at 20% strength (20% opacity purple on the map) will only receive 20% of the shift. Turnout adjustments can also be filtered by variable attributes and characteristics, including demography, past election results, and election conditions. This can either be a binary filter, which applies only if a characteristic exceeds or is less than a certain user-determined threshold, or a scaling factor, which applies the adjustment as a fraction of the original strength based on the value of the attribute relative to the rest of the geography. The feature with the largest value receives the full value of the turnout adjustment, and the strength of other features’ turnout adjustments are based on the value of the attribute relative to the feature with the largest value. Turnout adjustments can be enabled or disabled via the eye icon. The region and intensity of an adjustment can be viewed by the drop icon, and Turnout adjustments can be deleted with the trash icon. All of these icons are to the right of the Vote Component selection drop-down.

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Examples

Turnout adjustment applying a uniform 10 percent increase to Everett Wess’s turnout. Turnout adjustment applying a 10 percent increase to Everett Wess’s turnout among Black voters. Turnout adjustment applying an increase to Everett Wess’s turnout among all voters. The increase in turnout is scaled by the share of voters who are aged 18 to 29, where the maximum turnout increase is 10 percent. Turnout adjustment utilizing map select applying a uniform 10 percent increase to Barry Moore’s turnout in the Mobile-Pensacola media market. Turnout adjustment utilizing map select applying an increase to Barry Moore’s turnout among all voters in the Mobile-Pensacola media market. The turnout increase is scaled by the share of the population which is aged over 65 years old, with the maximum turnout increase being 10 percent.